The 2025 Lunar New Year celebration serves not only as a traditional family reunion festival but also as a crucial window into China's economic vitality and evolving consumption patterns. Economic indicators during this period function like a barometer, reflecting market temperature and signaling future investment directions. How can we decipher these data points to uncover hidden opportunities?

1. Fiscal Revenue: Steady Growth with Notable Stock Market Contribution

Data from the Ministry of Finance shows national tax revenue reached 101.9 billion yuan in February, a 7.2% year-over-year increase. Cumulative revenue for January-February stood at 321.4 billion yuan, up 0.9% year-over-year. Notably, securities transaction taxes—closely tied to stock market performance—grew 5.8% in the first two months, hitting a record high for the period. This growth stems from increased trading volume and additional trading days in February, demonstrating market confidence. While securities firms saw reduced January profits due to fewer trading days during the holiday period, underwriting profits bucked the trend, indicating strong demand for IPO-related financial services.

Key Insights:

• Stock market activity directly impacts government tax revenue, with securities transaction taxes reflecting overall market confidence.
• Growth in underwriting services suggests emerging industries and innovative enterprises are attracting significant investment.

2. Aviation Sector: Record Revenues During Holiday Travel Boom

Major airlines including China Airlines, Starlux Airlines, and Tigerair Taiwan reported record revenues as international travel surged during the holiday. EVA Air's consolidated revenue reached 20.045 billion yuan, up 13.69% year-over-year, with passenger revenue growing 10.32% and cargo revenue jumping 33.8%.

Key Insights:

• The outbound travel market recovery has delivered direct revenue growth for airlines.
• Cargo business expansion reflects robust global trade and stable supply chains.

3. Film Industry: Spring Festival Box Office Exceeds Expectations

The 2025 Lunar New Year film season outperformed expectations, reversing 2024's downward trend. "Ne Zha 2" grossed 5.78 billion yuan, surpassing "The Battle at Lake Changjin" to become China's highest-grossing film. Shanghai emerged as the top-grossing city, demonstrating strong cultural consumption power.

Key Insights:

• Box office success indicates strong consumer demand for cultural entertainment.
• Shanghai's leading position reinforces its status as China's cultural consumption hub.

4. Inflation: Consumer Prices Rise Above Warning Threshold

January's CPI rose 2.66% year-over-year, breaching the 2% inflation warning level and marking an 11-month high. Prices for vegetables, fruits, and household services jumped over 10%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.26%, signaling underlying inflationary pressure.

Key Insights:

• Inflation may dampen consumer spending, requiring government monitoring and intervention.
• Essential goods price increases disproportionately affect lower-income groups, necessitating enhanced social safeguards.

5. Gold Consumption: Youth Embrace Affordable Gold Products

19.9 yuan gold stickers—marketed as "real gold for the price of milk tea"—became youth favorites ahead of the holiday. This trend reflects younger generations' appreciation for traditional cultural elements and personalized expression.

Key Insights:

• Youth are reshaping the gold market with distinct consumption habits.
• Affordable gold products' popularity signals a focus on value amid consumption downgrading.

6. Transportation: Travel Challenges Persist Despite Extended Holiday

The 40-day Spring Travel period began 12 days early in 2025. Despite an 8-day holiday, travel difficulties remained, with railway booking system crashes occurring three times in four days. Airfare volatility—including steep last-minute price drops—sparked consumer complaints.

Key Insights:

• Spring Travel continues challenging China's transportation infrastructure.
• Ticket price fluctuations reflect shifting supply-demand dynamics, requiring strategic travel planning.

7. Retail: Themed Stores and Trade-In Programs Drive Sales

Retailers like 7-ELEVEN and Starbucks attracted crowds with themed locations, including a Pokémon store in northern Taiwan and the country's first TOMICA-themed outlet. Trade-in programs for electronics also stimulated holiday shopping.

Key Insights:

• Themed retail success highlights demand for experiential consumption.
• Trade-in policies effectively boost sales while promoting industry upgrades.

8. Steel Industry: Focus on Value Enhancement

China Steel Corporation outlined four operational strategies emphasizing value performance (VP) improvement, reflecting confidence in market recovery and product competitiveness.

Key Insights:

• Steel sector performance remains a key economic indicator.
• Value-added products are crucial for maintaining market position.

9. Government Outlook: Confidence in Economic Fundamentals

An editorial in the People's Daily emphasized China's "solid foundations, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and enormous potential," affirming long-term positive trends.

Key Insights:

• Official statements aim to stabilize market expectations.
• China's economic fundamentals remain strong despite challenges.

10. Real Estate: Varied Price Trends Near Holiday Markets

Property prices near traditional Lunar New Year markets showed regional variation, with Kaohsiung's Zuoying district recording 92.5% growth over three years, while Taipei's Nanmen Market area commanded premium prices of 1.056 million yuan per ping (3.3 square meters).

Key Insights:

• Real estate performance reflects local economic conditions and policy impacts.
• Holiday market proximity serves as a consumption and investment indicator.

Conclusion

The 2025 Lunar New Year economic data provides valuable insights into China's economic and consumption trends. From fiscal growth and aviation records to box office successes, these indicators demonstrate economic resilience while highlighting persistent challenges like inflation and transportation strain. Collectively, they offer investors crucial reference points and reinforce confidence in China's economic trajectory.